You Think Cap Rates Signal the Turn, But They're Just the Rear-View Mirror 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲 We watch cap rates, sale volumes, and long-term rates like they’re gospel. But the real story is simpler and older: supply and demand for money. When lenders pull back, it’s not just credit tightening. It’s the tide of capital receding. This Bisnow article lays it out nicely: banks are shrinking their CRE books while private credit piles in, eager to lend before projects even stabilize. In other words, old money’s cautious, new money’s reckless. When capital supply gets restricted, bad operators vanish, good ones get stronger, and the next wave of lending starts brewing quietly in the background. As Buffett said: “What the wise do in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” Private credit might just be the fool rushing in this time. https://lnkd.in/e6AXAuG2