Writing · Capital / Finance / Investing

2025-05-23
Twin Cities Experiment Proves It: Rent Control Cuts Construction 48% While Neighboring City Thrives. As a real estate owner/operator, I've watched "tenant protection" policies destroy the very housing they claim to protect. The numbers don't lie—and they're terrifying. Look at the recent Bisnow article (Link below) NYC's Housing Stability Act (2019) Results: 4,300 rent-stabilized units now bleeding $4M annually Property values collapsed (Upper Manhattan: $290K → $122K per unit) Landlords choosing foreclosure over renovation 61,000 vacant apartments are sitting empty because renovation caps don't cover actual costs The Twin Cities gave us a perfect control group: St. Paul (implemented 3% rent control): Construction permits CRASHED 48% in one year Property values dropped 45% per unit Developers fled to neighboring cities Minneapolis (no rent control initially): Construction permits UP 16% same period Only 27% property value decline 3x more housing units built than St. Paul Charlie Munger was right: "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." When you cap returns below maintenance costs, rational actors exit. When they exit, housing deteriorates. When housing deteriorates, the people these laws intended to help suffer the most. Rent control creates the very scarcity it claims to solve. The pattern is predictable. Good intentions meet economic reality Supply shrinks as operators exit Existing stock deteriorates Poor tenants trapped in declining buildings Politicians blame "greedy landlords" instead of their own policies We're not the villains in this story. We're the canaries in the coal mine, warning about structural collapse while regulators plug their ears. The math doesn't care about politics. Buildings need capital to survive. Cut off capital, watch them die. https://lnkd.in/eJgsk38r
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