“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” — Galbraith After 30 years in real estate, I’ve been both. In 2006, we were geniuses—until 2008 showed up. Buyers walked from six-figure earnest money. Some sued over a one-inch floor plan discrepancy just to get out. In 2012, I was sure rates had to go up. So we locked in fixed debt. Smart move—until we sold early. Millions lost in defeasance. Lesson learned? Of course not. Next deal: floating rate debt. Rates spiked. Debt service up $1.5 million in a year. Cash flow? Down from 12% to 3%. Insurance? Up 82%—in one year. Did any guru predict that? Here’s what experience has taught me: The future is a compulsive liar. Forecasts feel smart. But they’re just educated guesses. And the people posting wins? You’re only seeing the hits. Never the airballs. So when someone says “X is going to happen,” ask them: How’d your last five predictions go? In the meantime, stick to what works: 📌 Underwrite with discipline. 📌 If the deal makes sense—do it. 📌 If it doesn’t—walk. Simple. Not easy. But it’s how you survive long enough to get lucky. And the next time you feel like predicting interest rates? Do what I do—bite your tongue. No one knows. Let’s be humble about it.