Writing ยท Mindset / Mental Models / Decision Making
The old Wall Street adage goes: "Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down." But in commercial real estate, we're witnessing something more peculiar- taking the emergency exit stairs, one painfully slow step at a time.
This fascinating piece from Bisnow.com explores why 2025 might finally force us to face the music in commercial real estate. ๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐% ๐จ๐ $๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ข๐ ๐จ๐๐, ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฐ๐'๐ซ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ค๐ข๐๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ - ๐ฐ๐'๐ซ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐๐.
The "extend-and-pretend" strategy has become the commercial real estate equivalent of using your credit card to pay off another credit card. It works until it doesn't, and 2025 is shaping up to be the year when the music stops, and we find out who's been swimming naked, as Warren Buffett would say.
It is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding why even the most prestigious institutional names are, as one expert puts it, "hitting the end of their rope." Sometimes, the most valuable lessons in investing come not from knowing when to enter the market but from understanding when the market has been living in denial.
https://lnkd.in/eHxxzENT