Writing ยท Leasing & Conversion
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น ๐ฌ๐ผ๐โ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฑ
Iโve been skeptical of crypto for years. Still am, mostly.
But I just read a Fortune piece on Tether, and the business model deserves a closer look. Because it might be the most efficient float operation ever built.
You give Tether a dollar. They give you a digital token. They invest your dollar in T-bills at 3-4%. They keep all the interest. You get zero.
NVIDIA leads all publicly traded companies at about $2 million in profit per employee. Tether reported $13 billion with roughly 150 people. Thatโs about $87 million per head. Double the headcount to be conservative. Still 20x the public company record.
Buffett built Berkshire around insurance float. Collect premiums, invest them, pay claims later. Tether runs a similar model, but the claims process that eats 5-12% of an insurerโs premiums (adjusters, investigators, fraud detection, legal). For Tether, itโs a wire transfer.
What makes the float sticky: minimum redemption is $100,000. $150 verification fee. One withdrawal per week. U.S. citizens largely canโt redeem at all. Most holders sell on exchanges or peer to peer. The money never leaves Tetherโs balance sheet.
This isnโt just traders. According to Tether, over 500 million people use USDT. In 2025, it processed $156 billion in payments under $1,000. Remittances. Payroll. Grocery money.
54 million on-chain wallets hold USDT. 31.5 million hold between $1 and $1,000. Just over a million hold more than $1,000.
The backbone is a farmer in Nigeria or a freelancer in the Philippines holding $50 in digital dollars because their currency lost 40% this year. 4.5 billion people live on less than $10 a day. Many canโt access a bank. They have a phone. Now they have USDT.
Real customers with real problems. Most of crypto canโt say that.
Now hereโs where it could break.
No Big Four audit. Ever. They use quarterly โattestationsโ from an Italian accounting firm. An attestation is a one-day snapshot. An audit examines the full picture. The CEO calls it a โtop priority.โ Heโs been saying that for years.
Reserves: $141 billion in Treasuries, $17 billion in gold, $8 billion in Bitcoin, $15 billion in loans. Assets exceed liabilities by $6.3 billion. In theory. In a panic, you sell them while everyone else is selling too.
In 2022, they handled $7 billion in redemptions over 48 hours. But USDT was $80 billion then. Today itโs $187 billion. A 10% run now means $18.7 billion. At that scale, speed matters more than solvency.
Insurance claims are predictable. Stablecoin redemptions are driven by panic. The more people redeem, the more others want to. Insurance doesnโt face bank runs. Stablecoins do.
A zero-cost liability, invested in risk-free assets, protected by redemption friction, serving hundreds of millions who chose it over their local options.
Either brilliant or fragile. Probably both.
https://lnkd.in/enVNvc6s