Writing · Real Estate (general)
Similar to the rest of the commercial real estate market, there's a fair share of "extend and pretend" happening within multifamily, Haas said, as borrowers are seeking short-term extensions on loans about to mature with the hope that economic conditions — including interest rates — will improve in one to three years.
While a lot of attention has been placed on the amount of new apartment construction hitting places like the Sun Belt, Haas said there are indications most of the distress is coming from loans backing older multifamily properties. He also pointed to value-add plays from less sophisticated borrowers, including some first-time investors in the multifamily market that took out highly leveraged loans a few years ago to refurbish properties and raise rents significantly.
"I think the main thing there is, they’re not going to achieve high-enough rents to cover an interest rate that went from 3% to 9%," Haas said. "Nobody is going to do that."