Writing · AI / Automation / Tech

2026-05-14
How do you know the track record is real? Two sponsors. Same vintage. Same 22 percent IRR. One ran at 85 percent leverage. The other at 65. They are not the same operator. One borrowed his way to the return. The other did more with less. Without the leverage column next to the IRR column, the IRR is meaningless on its own. That is where track record review usually ends and where verification should start. Every sponsor shows you returns. Few show you the assumptions behind them. Fewer still show you the leverage. The first job is to put them on the same axis. Run the unlevered IRR. If that number is also strong, you could have an operator in front of you. If it collapses, the leverage was the deal. In thirty years of owning apartments, I have seen value-add business plans run on time and under budget. Not often. Usually, with experienced sponsors who have done the same deal type ten times in the same market. The base rate is that schedules slip, CapEx runs over, and premiums show up late. Sometimes that is bad operating. Sometimes it is a contractor walking off the job in month four. The narrative around the deal tells you which. How do you tell? Start with a case study. Pick one or two of their exited deals. Ask for the original proforma. Pull the T-12 from the broker's sale package, which is usually available. Compare what they modeled to what actually happened. With AI, this takes minutes. The next question is harder. Of the returns they hit, how much was them? The clean test is same-store NOI growth net of the submarket rent change, controlling for cohort. If the operator beat the submarket by 200 to 400 basis points per year, deal after deal, you have an operator. If they tracked the submarket, the market did the work. If they underperformed with a value-add story, run. The third question is about mistakes. Some of my deals returned far less than we projected. Lots of mistakes inside the winners. I can name them, and I can tell you what I would do differently. In thirty years, I have talked to a lot of sponsors. Very few go back and rub their nose in what they got wrong. They want to celebrate the wins and bury the losers. Ask for the deal where their own decisions cost the most return. Not the market. Not the partner. Their decisions. Listen for whether they put themselves in the story. Then watch whether the lesson shows up in the next deal. Most LPs will not do this work.The next cycle will tell them what it cost.
AI / Automation / TechCapital / Finance / InvestingMindset / Mental Models / Decision MakingReal Estate (general)

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